It's 2013. We've made it. For those of us watching from the United States, the last few days of 2012 (to say nothing of the first couple of this year) were touch and go. But here we are.
Political risk has entered our vocabulary. Whether staring over the fiscal cliff, battling the eurozone crisis, trying to profit from a rising China, or taking cover from the Middle East; around the world, politics has come to dominate market outcomes. Geoeconomics now sits alongside geopolitics in matters of war, peace, and prosperity. Economic statecraft is a key component of global foreign policy. State capitalism is a principal challenge to the free market.
That's been increasingly true for the last four years because of the way perceptions of political risk have spread across the developed world. Since the financial crisis, what did or didn't happen in Washington has had an outsized impact on market outcomes. So too the reaction of European governments and pan-European political institutions to a crippling, systemic eurozone crisis. We’ve seen a succession of five governments in Japan digging out, first from the recession and then from the largest-scale natural disaster the world has seen in decades.
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