The EU had planned to phase out Russian gas, including LNG, by 2027, but there have been reports that major European leaders are reconsidering. Rising energy prices are hurting their competitiveness, and while some Eastern European nations, like Poland, strongly oppose any renewed Russian energy imports, others appear more open to the idea.
Could Washington and Moscow strike a deal quickly and easily?
Leaders never sit down without a deal already worked out. In my opinion, it will be a package deal - about oil prices, production, developments in the Middle East and the Caucasus, and relations with China and the EU. The Russia-Ukraine peace deal will, of course, be the most important among them. Given that both leaders are pragmatic and share personal chemistry, I believe a solution will emerge from this meeting.
Could Trump pressuring Russia into breaking its strategic alliance with China be part of this so-called deal?
This has been Trump’s goal from the very beginning. During his first term, he pushed this idea, but he couldn’t go far because of opposition from the deep state in the U.S. Now, he has a stronger grip on power and is more confident in pushing this strategy forward. He sees China as the main threat, and he knows that if China and Russia remain aligned, the West, especially the U.S., will struggle to counter them effectively. He also understands that although Russia and China don’t fully trust each other, their relationship is a marriage of convenience, against the west. China plays the long game and will never fully trust the U.S. or Europe. Its priorities lie in strengthening its relationships with neighboring countries, including Russia. The success of Trump’s strategy will ultimately depend on Trump and Putin’s personal chemistry, but it’s a long shot.