In our part of the world, India, China, Korea, Japan, and smaller economies like Pakistan and Bangladesh, we are among the worst hit. Every country wants peace to return so that oil, gas, and LNG can start flowing again. But the reality is more complicated. There is a growing perception that Iran has the upper hand, while America appears stuck and wants to get out. The conditions the United States is asking Iran to accept are not easy for its leadership to agree to, given domestic pressures.
If you look at the rhetoric and military preparations on both sides, the movement of aircraft carriers and fighter jets, I would not be surprised if we see another round of hostilities in the coming weeks. The fact that the Strait of Hormuz has not been reopened despite the strongest navy in the world tells its own story. Iran, meanwhile, sees this as an opportunity to emerge stronger from any negotiation, which raises concerns for the region. There is no real light at the end of the tunnel. Negotiations lack heavyweight mediators, and major powers are either unwilling or unacceptable to step in. At the same time, countries across Asia are taking a severe economic hit and are increasingly worried.
What we are witnessing is a fundamental shift. The region’s security and energy architecture is changing. This will not be smooth, there will be chaos, noise, and even violence. But it is also creating new opportunities. A new Middle East is in the making, where regional countries will play a bigger role in security and energy, while global alignments continue to evolve.