Since the Russia-Ukraine war, US LNG has played a critical role in stabilizing European gas prices, and with new FIDs and a surge in deal announcements recently - both long-term contracts and equity stakes in US liquefaction projects - we’re likely to see those LNG flows to Europe increase even more. Last year, the US had paused approvals for LNG exports to non-free trade agreement countries, but the Trump administration recently lifted that pause. They’ve also streamlined the approval process and granted conditional export approvals to four pre-FID projects. Add now with tariff pressures, you see Asian buyers increasingly investing in US LNG, particularly along the Gulf Coast. The wildcard is Alaska LNG; it has avoided US Gulf Coast shipping bottlenecks and has massive untapped reserves - Asian buyers are starting to take serious interest in it again.
Outlook for China LNG demand?
China was the world’s largest LNG importer last year and has held that position since 2021. But this year, Chinese demand is unusually weak, driven by higher domestic gas production, increased Russian pipeline imports, and mild weather. And since February, China hasn’t imported a single US LNG cargo because of the tariff issue. In 2024, China received around 4 million tons of US LNG, making the US its fourth or fifth-largest supplier. Those US cargoes that would have gone to China are now being resold, often ending up in Europe where demand is strong. So, while prices haven’t been affected much, flows have shifted.
Appetite from other Asia buyers for US LNG?
There’s a huge wave of LNG supply coming online globally over the next few years. Countries such as Japan, Korea, and Taiwan, have traditionally relied on suppliers like Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Brunei, but those suppliers face declining gas reserves. That’s why Asian buyers have been proactive in signing new long-term deals for US LNG - particularly pre-FID projects that won't come online until after 2030.