China has decisively outplayed the US in what began as a broad tariff conflict involving nearly every major U.S. trading partner, even Canada. Long before Washington escalated tensions, Beijing had already adjusted its trade flows, cutting imports of U.S. LNG and refined products. By purchasing vast quantities of American soybeans, China struck directly at the heart of the U.S. agricultural sector, a move that showcased its ability to weaponize economic interdependence.
Economic sentiment sours across America
Despite resilient equity markets, the lived experience for most Americans is one of economic strain. Tariffs have driven up consumer prices, undermining purchasing power and fueling discontent across political divides. Polls may fluctuate, but the national mood is unmistakable, households feel squeezed. While corporate profits remain concentrated among a few large-cap firms, the broader economy is stagnating.
Oil’s stability masks structural weakness
Oil at $60 is no longer sufficient to sustain new U.S. production. With shale wells declining by roughly 650, 000 b/d each month, producers are running hard just to stay level. Global output growth has stalled across the Americas. As OPEC+ weighs accelerating supply, oversupply risks loom large, especially as China’s storage capacity nears its limit and demand could abruptly fall.