Could Israel realistically strike Iran’s nuclear sites?

I do think it's realistic to be concerned about a potential Israeli strike, there absolutely is a threat of conflict in the Middle East. There is a willingness on both sides to reach a deal, but it's about whether they can find common ground, particularly on uranium enrichment. The US seems to have shifted toward a "zero enrichment" stance, while Iran’s Supreme Leader has stated that such a condition would be a dealbreaker. Timing is also a major issue. The Trump administration appears to have limited patience and may move on quickly if talks stall, increasing the risk of a confrontation. While most regional actors do not want conflict, except perhaps Israel, breakdown in negotiations could raise the chances significantly.

There’s a real possibility of another "super hike" in production.

OPEC, particularly its core members, sees strong fundamentals, especially low global stock levels. There’s a bit more discipline now, even from countries like Iraq, though issues remain. Entering the U.S. driving season, a traditional period of high demand, OPEC might see this as an opportunity to increase output and capture market share, especially since prices have been stuck in the mid-$60s range. If geopolitical tensions provide a bullish backdrop, OPEC may lean toward a more aggressive production increase. They might also use it as a message to less compliant members.

Is there hope for Kurdish oil exports to come back online soon?

This is fundamentally a political issue, not a technical or production-related one. The tension between Baghdad and Erbil, and recent developments, like the KRG Prime Minister’s high-profile visit to Washington, have complicated things. Baghdad might view these moves as undermining its authority. With Iraqi elections coming in November, unless a breakthrough happens soon, these exports are likely to remain offline and could be used as political leverage in post-election negotiations. The Trump administration is the wild card. Baghdad fears that Barzani’s Washington visit could spark renewed U.S. pressure or even sanctions against top Iraqi officials. This might push Baghdad toward compromise. But without that external nudge, both sides seem content to gamble on the current balance, keeping Kurdish oil exports sidelined for now.”