Do you expect oil price to stay in the $60–$70 range?

I expect oil to set new lows, down to $45, maybe even $40. OPEC appears to have a deliberate plan to keep increasing supply. Oil is cheap when measured against gold, SDRs, or other benchmarks. It’s going to get cheaper still.

What is mainly driving the bearishness?

The bearishness isn’t about demand, it’s about sentiment and the collapse of bullish narratives. Markets were previously driven by fears of sanctions on Iran or Russia, or possible US military action. But none of those scenarios are playing out, and without them, the market has no story to justify higher prices. It’s all sentiment. Oil prices fluctuate by the second, but supply and demand don’t. OPEC signaling increased output reinforces the bearish mood. The US may even be encouraging lower prices to undercut long-term competition from high-cost producers like US shale and others.

What will be the impact of Moody’s downgrade of US credit ratings for the oil market?

It’s massive. The 10-year Treasury yield is now above 4.5%, signaling that the market expects a flood of new US debt. More issuance means lower bond prices and higher yields, which pressures the US dollar to weaken significantly. A weaker dollar means inflation will rise sharply, and if any geopolitical flare-up spikes oil prices, inflation could explode. The downgrade is a major signal for the oil market.