Do you think we’ll see Brent crude oil dip below the $70 floor again before the year ends?

Looking forward, one of the major factors is the ongoing flow of news about China’s economic challenges. Persistent weakness there could impact the market, especially as discussions about tariffs heat up and new U.S. administration appointments bring in more China-hawk perspectives. Additional negative news from China would likely play a part, but I believe that OPEC+ has maintained effective control, especially in managing both crude and product exports. They face dual challenges, balancing direct crude supply and managing product flows. Given their current strategies, I’d expect them to prevent Brent from staying below the $70 mark for long. If it dips, it would likely be brief. Our forecast consistently places prices for 2025 in the $75 to $80 range, reflecting OPEC’s firm control of the market with medium-grade barrels, which are in high demand, while lighter sweet barrels from the U.S. are plentiful. OPEC’s upstream management and downstream product export footprint are unprecedented and key to the market’s stability. I maintain that if prices touch $70, they will bounce back quickly.

What is your outlook for OPEC+ compliance with Output quotas?

A key point, often overlooked, is that OPEC+ countries are divided into two groups: those under-compliant, adding more crude to the market than their quotas and thus applying downward price pressure, and those like Saudi Arabia, which are compliant on crude but have increased oil products exports. OPEC+ as a group has been exporting about one million more barrels of products than pre-Covid pandemic levels, and these products indirectly put crude back on the market, helping stabilize prices.

What is your outlook for China’s oil demand?

A critical point to note is what I call “China 3.0.” Initially, China was isolated and closed-off for many years, with an oil demand of around 7–8 million barrels per day. With WTO integration 20 years ago, China became the “factory of the world, ” pushing oil demand to 16 million barrels per day. Now, with a potential for renewed tariffs under Trump, China is shifting its focus toward Africa, BRICS nations, and Europe. In this phase, China 3.0, China’s influence will grow globally, as the U.S. increasingly focuses on tariffs and isolation. Watching Trump 2.0 and China 3.0 will be crucial, as both could reshape global dynamics in unexpected ways.