Despite ongoing talks, the situation on the ground tells a different story. Attacks from both sides are escalating. While some of this may be tactical posturing ahead of negotiations, the timeline for resolution has already exceeded expectations set by the Trump administration. Historically, every U.S. administration, regardless of party, has attempted a “reset” with Russia. Most have failed. Today, Europe’s stance is shaped by experience, not idealism. Trust in Russia has eroded. Even though U.S. LNG helped fill the supply gap after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a peace deal could trigger debate about reintroducing Russian gas. That would raise thorny political and strategic questions, especially given ongoing legal battles between European utilities and Gazprom.
No Return to Russian Gas Dominance
Norway is now the EU’s largest gas supplier, followed by U.S. LNG. Russia, once dominant with a 40% share of Europe’s gas market, now supplies only about 10%, mostly through TurkStream and limited Arctic LNG shipments bound for Asia. While Russia still generates substantial revenue from other exports like oil and fertilizers, its grip on European gas appears permanently diminished. The European Commission recently reiterated its aim to eliminate Russian gas entirely by 2027, a clear effort to head off any political temptation to revive stalled projects like Nord Stream 2. Although some member states, like Hungary, remain reliant on Russian supply, the broader trend is unmistakable: the era of Russian energy dominance in Europe is ending.