Even if a political resolution emerges soon, oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are unlikely to immediately return to pre-war levels. The disruption now extends beyond geopolitics into the physical realities of global shipping logistics. The backlog alone could take two to three months to clear. Vessels still need to unload cargoes, return, and reload, making any normalization process gradual rather than immediate. Yet markets continue reacting to headlines around an imminent deal while the deeper structural disruption across shipping and supply chains remains insufficiently reflected in oil prices. By the end of May, the region could effectively lose close to one billion barrels of liquids and refined products if the situation remains unresolved. At the same time, vessel owners are increasingly looking to position more ships into the region rather than pull them out, anticipating commercial opportunities once flows resume.
OPEC+ Still Prioritizes Stability Over Production Surges
Even once the Strait stabilizes, OPEC+ is unlikely to respond with aggressive production increases. The group continues signaling cohesion despite volatility and uncertainty, maintaining regular meetings and emphasizing predictability in the market. Although the UAE has indicated a desire to maximize production capacity following its move away from quota restrictions, any increase is still expected to happen gradually. A sudden supply surge risks triggering another damaging price war, something producers want to avoid. For OPEC+, market management remains essential. Without coordinated production policy, markets risk returning to destructive boom-and-bust cycles that undermine upstream investment, fiscal stability, and long-term energy security. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, continues carrying most of the burden, as the deepest production cuts still largely originate from Riyadh.