I believe oil prices will at least hold steady here and might even increase.

You’ve got the election season in full swing, geopolitical dynamics, uncertainty on demand growth. That’s all going to feed into what happens to oil prices, sustaining them higher moving forward. Gulf producers will likely add capacity as planned in Q4, but decisions may adjust based on upcoming meetings, such as the August 1st JMMC gathering. Flexibility has been key for OPEC+ in responding to market changes and they will take whatever action necessary in supporting current price levels.

Could additional US supply disrupt OPEC+ planned increases in H2?

I don’t see any potential disruptions coming from the US or anywhere else. The market will be determined by what OPEC+ decides to do with their excess capacity. I don’t believe any non-OPEC+ countries have significant additional capacity that would alter the current outlook.

Why are US rigs proving so hard to get, especially with oil at above $80?

There’s been a slight easing, but supply chain issues persist, and competition remains strong for rigs. You would expect higher oil prices to spur more investment, but the general uncertainty is hindering significant capital infusion into the oil and gas sector. Governments in the West, particularly in Europe and the UK, are wary; investing in the oil and gas industry there doesn’t seem worthwhile right now.