By maintaining production levels and not signaling intentions too far in advance, the group has been able to stabilize prices effectively. I believe they aim to outlast the rise in US oil production while waiting for a potential rebound in lackluster Chinese demand. Historically, Saudi Arabia has cracked down hard on any OPEC cheating, often pushing prices down forcefully when members exceed quotas. However, in today’s environment, cheating has become nearly impossible. With technologies tracking every cargo in realtime
OPEC can now monitor member compliance far more effectively. I expect OPEC Plus to continue its current strategy, postponing production increases until demand strengthens, or member pressure escalates. For now, it seems the status quo works for everyone involved.
How will Trump’s return and renewed support for fossil fuels impact supply?
I almost see oil as an afterthought in the US. I don’t foresee significant new investments. The major players have learned their lessons after being burned in the past. Future oil production is now firmly in the hands of the big players like OPEC. Growth, however, will come from other parts of the hydrocarbon chain, particularly natural gas and petrochemicals, which will drive the next phase of the energy economy, and that’s where the US has a tremendous advantage. It all comes down to profitability. For example, Guyana is expected to remain highly profitable. But when we look at the Permian Basin, recent leadership changes at Chevron and Exxon signal a shift in strategy. These companies are likely to operate more like OPEC, cautious about significant new investments in oil production because they simply don’t need to. The current price levels seem acceptable to most major players. The bigger question is on OPEC’s side and whether there will be a push to increase production.