The IEA’s decision to reinstate its Current Policies Scenario is a valuable reminder of what the world looks like if today’s policy settings remain unchanged. It is not, and should not be mistaken for, a forecast. Instead, it frames one end of a spectrum that also includes the IEA’s Net Zero pathway, an aggressively decarbonised future. The real world will almost certainly land between these extremes. Our outlook aligns more closely with the Stated Policies Scenario, which reflects the practical evolution of energy policy over the coming decade. Under this framework, global oil demand in 2050 levels off in the 90-million-barrel-per-day range, neither runaway growth nor collapse. It is a plateau shaped by incremental policy tightening, consumer shifts, and economic realities.
Macro Risks Are Rising as Energy and Tech Converge
This same realism is required when assessing the U.S. macro landscape. Tariffs remain structurally inflationary, and expectations of multiple Fed rate cuts were always overly optimistic. We foresee slower growth but not recession. The larger risks lie in the expanding U.S. deficit and a potential correction in AI-inflated technology equities. Meanwhile, rapid data-centre expansion is creating a new nexus between energy and tech, likely supporting U.S. natural gas prices. As we approach 2026, market stability will hinge on disciplined supply management and credible, rather than aspirational, policy signals.