Over half the ships carrying sanctioned oil, including Iranian, are now under some form of US sanction. In April alone, more than 60 tankers were sanctioned by Trump. These ships are still delivering to China, often operating off the radar or using deceptive shipping practices. What we’re seeing is that with Urals crude now pricing below the price cap, about 50% of shipments last month were carried by private, Greek-owned ships. That has allowed some risk-tolerant Western shipowners to re-enter the market. So, although lower prices have benefited a niche sector, the risks are rising. This has now become a systemic safety issue - an accident waiting to happen.
Where does that leave insurance around such vessels?
One of the unintended consequences of sanctions is that many tankers have moved entirely outside regulatory oversight. They’re registering under fraudulent or obscure flags. Even if they claim to have insurance or classification, it’s likely invalid. Just last month, one tanker was falsely flying the Djibouti flag and sailed through the Baltic Sea, Danish Straits, and English Channel - completely unimpeded. I tracked these same vessels delivering sanctioned cargoes to China and anchoring at Fujairah. At the very least, port state control authorities should intervene because if one of these ships has an accident, it’s coastal governments who foot the bill. This is the largest scale of such illicit activity I’ve ever seen, and so far, there’s been very little political will to deal with it. If, for example, you have tankers delivering oil from Malaysia that are fraudulently flagged under Guyana - a known fake registry - those ships should be detained until they're properly flagged. That would be a relatively easy first step in tackling what is now a very serious threat to global shipping and oil trade.