This is critical for our hard currency earnings and global economic standing. However, we can’t become complacent. While two mega refineries are in the works, there’s debate over whether more are needed, given the push for renewable energy. However, to maintain our export status and meet domestic demand - which could rise from 5.5 million b/d today to 7.5 million b/d if GDP growth eventually hits 9% - we have no choice but to pursue additional refinery projects. There are also proposals for Indian companies to invest in a mega refinery on Africa’s east coast, which could be a strategic move.
Are Russian oil flows into Asia now a permanent fixture?
It’s more than that – it’s a dynamic new energy world order. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, we’ve had a largely unified global energy market led by the US, but that era is over. Now, Russia, China, and Iran are constructing their own energy world order, with different pricing and economic fundamentals. India’s current imports from Russia are mainly due to economic reasons, but also political, aimed at preventing Russia from becoming overly reliant on China.
Is the rise of Middle East trading firms a positive for India?
It is. India aims for deeper economic integration with the Middle East, not just in energy but across sectors. The proposed India-Middle East-Europe economic corridor, backed by many G20 countries, is one example of how this integration can reshape global trade. This relationship is mutually beneficial, and we’re building a future of interdependence that spans beyond energy into broader economic and political realms.
Have we seen peak oil demand in China?
I think that is premature. China is still heavily reliant on fossil fuels. While EVs are visible in cities like Shanghai, oil remains a critical part of the economy. Look at Chinese oil companies’ investments abroad - whether in Iran, Africa, or Latin America - they show that oil still plays a central role in China’s foreign policy and energy diplomacy.