India’s economy remains one of the brightest spots globally, posting 7.8% GDP growth in the quarter ending June 2025 and likely above 6% for the fiscal year. That momentum carries consequences for energy demand. Oil consumption will not disappear; it will remain elevated for years. Yes, we are making strong progress on electric mobility, EVs already dominate new sales in two and three wheelers, but four wheelers and commercial vehicles are still overwhelmingly powered by internal combustion engines. Moreover, total vehicle ownership is rising, so efficiency gains are being outpaced by new oil demand.
Sanctions, tariffs and the reshaping of India’s oil basket
India turned to discounted Russian crude when it made economic sense. Those discounts have narrowed and US sanctions, alongside tariffs of around 25% on some Indian exports, are now biting. Several major refiners have already stepped back from Russian barrels. Our oil demand, however, remains robust. That means a rebalancing of supply toward the Middle East, especially Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, while we simultaneously diversify trade partnerships. India’s priority is clear: safeguard growth, secure affordable energy and let economics, not just politics, steer the transition.