India’s oil imports are not necessarily commensurate to its GDP growth.

India’s energy mix remains heavily reliant on coal, still the dominant source. Oil and gas come next. India’s gas imports have been increasing, with a growing focus on gas usage in the country. The country’s gasoline and diesel consumption remain strong, as does aviation fuel demand, driven by economic growth. Indian refiners have also been actively importing crude, particularly from Russia, and positioning India as an export hub for refined petroleum products, including to markets like Europe, which have been displaced from Russian supply. Putting all this together, demand growth in India remains steady, though not at the levels we saw in China a decade ago. I would estimate India’s oil demand growth to be around 3–3.5%.

Trajectory of oil demand for the rest of Southeast Asia?

Countries like Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, and Vietnam are all experiencing GDP growth rates exceeding 5.5%. Most of these economies are heavily reliant on fossil fuels, despite taking steps toward renewable energy adoption. The priority in Southeast Asia, much like in India, is energy security, with the transition to renewables being a longer-term goal.

Is there hope for greater regional cooperation in South Asia?

The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) hasn’t delivered the level of cooperation seen in ASEAN or the EU. Political instability in countries like Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, along with regional tensions, hampers progress. India has made efforts to strengthen ties but achieving deep economic and political integration will require significant political will and obstacles remain on that front.

Any specific tariff or Trump policy that South Asia, particularly India, is concerned about?

Over the past month, there’s been talk of Trump asking for the removal of tariffs on certain American products exported to India. India has imposed retaliatory tariffs, but I believe a resolution will be found, given the strong partnership between the two nations. That said, during the initial days of the Trump administration, we might see heightened market volatility. India has been preparing to mitigate potential impacts by engaging various industries. While there’s some concern, the longstanding India-US relationship should prevent significant negative outcomes.