It’s simultaneously holding talks with the US, with Germany, France, and the UK, and separate discussions with Russia and China. Tehran is working to balance these relationships, each pulling in different directions. While Russia and China are reassured that Iran isn’t pivoting toward the West, talks with the US remain fraught with ambiguity. From the American perspective, two competing strategies appear to be in play: a renewed push for a nuclear deal or a return to the Trump-era “maximum pressure” campaign. Evidence of the latter is already visible, most notably, a sharp decline in Iranian crude exports to China. Despite the noise, Tehran appears to be signaling that it's prepared for a deal. A framework already exists and has the Iranian leadership’s backing. The core issues now lie on the American side, notably Washington’s demand for indefinite restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program. Iran’s Foreign Minister recently expressed openness to strict civilian-only nuclear activity, but the remaining hurdles are technical and legal. These include US assurances against unilateral sanction snapbacks, guarantees Iran won’t resume military nuclear development under any pretext, and tangible sanctions relief throughout and after the agreement.
Are Iran-China relations come under strain?
Geopolitically, China plays a central role as Iran’s primary oil customer. Although Beijing officially rejects US sanctions, it doesn’t provide protection to private buyers like Shandong refineries, two of which have already been penalized. China is walking a fine line: supporting Iran economically while avoiding direct confrontation with the US. If the US escalates pressure, perhaps by intercepting Iranian oil shipments, Iran could face difficult decisions. Any retaliation could threaten Gulf oil flows and trigger broader conflict. Without Chinese backing, Iran’s leverage shrinks considerably.
Where do Iran-Saudi relations stand?
They have improved markedly. Hostile rhetoric has decreased, and both sides appear to recognize the importance of long-term stability. Saudi Arabia, in particular, views regional peace as essential for its Vision 2030 goals to diversify its economy away from oil dependency. Riyadh is pursuing strategic partnerships with Russia and China and aims to normalize relations with Israel, but only after minimizing the threat of conflict with Iran. Saudi leaders believe any escalation between Iran and the US could directly endanger their infrastructure and economic ambitions. For that reason, they are deeply invested in seeing a resolution, or at least de-escalation, of Iran-US tensions before moving forward with normalization efforts with Israel.