It remains in question whether OPEC+ can return barrels to the market end of Q1.

That said, we must also consider the positive effects of their policies. Brent crude is trading above $75 per barrel because stock levels are down. OPEC+ has managed to create a semblance of balance in the market. I expect they will continue to adopt a cautious, flexible approach. Bringing back volumes at the end of Q1 will depend on multiple factors, beyond price. Demand growth is the key variable this year. We are seeing more consensus on those forecasts compared to the uncertainty of last year, where predictions ranged from 500, 000 b/d to 2 million b/d. This year, the range is closer to one million b/d.

Could OPEC+ consider further cuts and how would this impact group cohesion?

Further cuts would undoubtedly be challenging. We’ve already seen how compliance pressures have impacted OPEC+ over the past year. Additional cuts would make that harder to enforce. I believe the current dynamics and shared interests among OPEC+ members will help sustain the group’s cohesion, at least in the near term.

What about the UAE’s plans to increase production capacity to over 5 million b/d?

For now, the UAE seems satisfied with the phased increase in their production quota, which will be implemented over an 18-month period instead of earlier expectations, but challenges may arise when they hit the 5 million b/d mark. The UAE doesn’t want to sit on excessive spare capacity, but their role in OPEC+ also extends beyond energy. Their relationship with Saudi Arabia and other members is influenced by regional and political dynamics. Overall, being part of OPEC+ remains beneficial for the UAE, even though they might prefer to sell more oil at slightly lower prices.

Might we see Saudi Arabia shift its focus to market share?

If there’s a significant lack of compliance and the agreement begins to unravel, Saudi Arabia could act decisively. They’re bearing the largest burden, cutting significant capacity. And as we’ve seen before, it’s very easy for Saudi Arabia to open the taps and ramp up production very quickly. Similarly, if the threat from non-OPEC supply becomes too great, they can reintroduce production at a moment’s notice. For example, Brazil disappointed last year, and it may underperform again. It’s a waiting game, but if things spiral, voluntary cuts could be reversed.