It’s just a matter of time before WTI crude drops to $56 per barrel.

Demand is declining, particularly in China, and on the supply side, OPEC has an overhang, US supply is on the rise; exports of US liquid fuels and crude oil could approach 3 million barrels per day next year, barring any disruptions. Overall, crude oil remains in a bear market, but this is not unique to oil. Copper is beginning to break down, grains have already done so, and iron ore prices are declining as well. Another area to watch is the US Treasury bond market. Ten-year yields recently hit 4.50% and are now around 4.28%. In comparison, China’s yields are at 2.06%, and the top five countries’ average is 100 basis points lower than the US. This divergence shows that US Treasuries are still priced for inflation and deficit spending.

Could stronger tariffs from the US threaten its economy from an inflationary point of view?

We all know tariffs are short-term drivers for the dollar and for inflationary pressures. However, in the context of the US economy, total trade accounts for only 10% of GDP, and the trade deficit is approximately $1 trillion annually. Compare that to a $63 trillion stock market. A 10% correction in equities would have a severe deflationary effect, far outweighing the impact of tariffs. The Federal Reserve is aware of this dynamic. That’s why the stock market needs to stabilize or correct before inflation can meaningfully decline.

Are we witnessing a new surge in offshore drilling?

We’re indeed seeing a return to a "drill, baby, drill" mindset, and it’s accelerating an underlying dynamic: the growing surplus of supply relative to demand. This is evident in the US, Canada, Brazil, Guyana, and Mexico. But while offshore drilling may provide a temporary lift for oil and gas, the broader trend toward renewables is unstoppable. Globally, renewables are benefiting from massive deflationary forces, particularly in China, where the costs of solar panels and batteries are dropping rapidly. This is part of a broader paradigm shift toward cheaper, cleaner energy. In the long term, this transition will continue to reduce emissions and reshape global energy markets.