I don’t think Iran’s regime will concede significantly, especially on nuclear issues. They’ve learned lessons from Libya, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine, where disarmament led to vulnerability. We should take Israel’s threat to Iran seriously. Israel is determined to prevent Iran from achieving any nuclear capability, civilian or military. But while the US remains closely aligned to Israel, I see it pushing for regime change rather than military intervention. Israel will continue escalating tensions in the region until someone stops them. Tensions with Turkey could worsen if Ankara intervenes. Watch out for Trump's upcoming Middle East trip, including a possible stop in Turkey, where he will likely pressure Erdogan for diplomatic normalization with Israel. It’s a complex, dangerous chessboard as Trump seeks quick geopolitical wins ahead of crucial US mid-term elections.
What’s Europe’s position on Russia-Ukraine peace talks?
Europe publicly says it will respect Ukraine’s political leadership and decisions, but, behind the scenes, it is warning that if Ukraine concedes Crimea and Donbass to Russia, Moscow will not stop there. There are serious concerns about Central Europe, the Baltics, and Moldova. So, Europe’s position is even more rigid than Ukraine’s, though it’s not stated publicly.
What’s the US’ stance on the global stage 100 days into Trump?
Trump has lost credibility. His pivots on trade, disregard for international law and sovereignty issues, have alienated both enemies and traditional allies like Japan, South Korea, and Singapore. Meanwhile, China is gaining ground, building influence in Asia, Latin America, Africa, and parts of Europe. A new anti-Trump coalition could emerge, with China at its centre.