Market dynamics have pushed Russian Urals below the G7 price cap

This has allowed private Greek ship owners to step in and support the Russian oil market. The percentage of tankers by beneficial ownership lifting Russian oil and products in February, showed that 40% of the tonnage, the highest figure in 19 months, was Greek-owned. The percentage that lifted from the dark fleet was 38%, the lowest in 12 months. Sanctions, especially the U.S. ones, initially caused some trading difficulties for those involved with the dark fleet, but the market has since stabilized. Global tanker freight rates have moderately increased over the last month, but overall sentiment for tanker earnings isn't very positive for various reasons, including factors unrelated to the dark fleet and sanctions.

What changes should we expect if sanctions on Russia are eased?

If we look at historical precedents, such as when sanctions were lifted from Iran, it took about a year for shipments to Europe to resume and stabilize. The situation with Russia might follow a similar timeline, depending on European unity and individual countries' risk assessments. For example, Germany, a major importer of Baltic diesel, must decide whether to revert to Russian imports or continue with alternative sources. The decision will hinge on legality and economic efficiency, though the global environment remains volatile, adding uncertainty to these decisions.

Are we seeing any return to normalcy in Red Sea shipping?

Some shipowners are cautiously resuming transit through the Red Sea to see if conditions have truly stabilized. The situation remains fluid, and while there's some optimism, the risks associated with renewed conflicts could deter more significant movements in the near term. Insurance costs are still a significant factor in freight costs, influencing commercial decisions. While privately owned ships are more willing to take risks, US-listed ships perceive themselves as bigger targets. We might see a gradual increase in traffic through the Red Sea in the coming months if conditions remain stable.