It looks like we may be on the precipice of a break in the ceasefire, but there are also more positive signs. If you take the last week holistically, the language from negotiators is better than before, when key parties were not even engaging. We know there is a strong preference for face-saving and muscle-flexing in the lead-up to negotiations, and that negotiating styles often favor grabbing as much as possible at the last second. So, it is difficult to separate the noise from the signal.
There are still reasons to remain cautiously optimistic. By now, military advisers would have painted a clear picture of the risks, ground escalation would involve significant losses, while continuing current strategies is unlikely to yield additional benefits. If a major attack was going to happen, it probably would have happened already. There is also a desire to clear things up ahead of upcoming international engagements, which supports the view that much of the current tension may be positioning rather than intent.
China’s position reflects a similar calculation. It has influence and is affected by the disruption, but it is also the geopolitical adversary of the United States and may be content to let the US expend resources and lose prestige in a conflict of its own making. For now, there is no strong incentive for China to intervene, especially if it expects the US to eventually see reason.