According to market participants, the Strait of Hormuz is roughly 97 percent shut, with only a handful of owners still willing to transit. The Red Sea is estimated to be around 75 percent closed.
The result is an extremely unusual operational situation. There are vessels inside the Gulf with cargo onboard that cannot get out, ships outside waiting to go in and load, and others in ballast sitting offshore trying to cancel voyages. Brokers say they have never seen a situation quite like this before.
As a result, large numbers of ships are ballasting west toward the Atlantic basin. Owners are actively looking to secure what they consider “safe voyages” away from the conflict area. This repositioning is happening across all tanker sizes, from VLCCs down through the smaller segments.
Rate indications
Some extreme numbers have circulated in the market.
On VLCCs, the highest talk on subs has been Red Sea to Korea at around WS 450, which would equate to roughly $435, 000 per day, although this fixture is not yet confirmed.
On the Atlantic side, the highest reported US Gulf to Far East fixture has been around $29.3 million lump sum.
Depending on vessel position, brokers estimate this translates to roughly:
Around $310, 000 per day for ships already open in the US Gulf
Approximately $260, 000 to $270, 000 per day if the vessel needs to ballast in
There are also signs that the initial spike may already be easing. Petrobras reportedly fixed a Brazil to East cargo around 10 Worldscale points below the previous done level, suggesting sentiment may be starting to soften as more tonnage moves into the Atlantic.