It should take advantage of the colder weather while demand is strong in the winter months. Waiting until April could be risky. Renewable energy sources like wind will contribute more to the energy mix by then, especially in Europe. Let’s also not forget that Germany’s wind energy output decreased by 25% recently, creating an energy gap that OPEC+ could capitalize on. Additionally, increased European CO2 taxes have spurred demand for heating oil as consumers rush to purchase before further price hikes. This is a window of opportunity for OPEC+ because 2025 is shaping up to be a challenging year. On the demand front, the Chinese government has implemented stimulus measures aimed at achieving 5% growth by the end of the year, but it remains a tough target. On the supply side, non-OPEC+ producers are expected to add more than 1.5 million b/d. The big question is how this excess supply will be absorbed. The Group of Eight within OPEC+ are playing an increasingly pivotal role, carrying 3.8 million b/d of the overall cuts and shouldering a significant burden to stabilize the market. While OPEC+ accounts for just 40% of global market share, its decisions feel much more significant because of its influence on both supply and prices. OPEC+ did very well last year in terms of price stabilization, but it faces even greater responsibility in the years ahead to manage both market share and supply levels, especially with increased production from countries like the US and Guyana.
OPEC+ should act decisively and seize the opportunity now to secure market share.
