OPEC+, particularly Saudi Arabia, seems set to continue increasing output.

After years of withholding supply and losing market share (notably in the U.S.), they’ve shifted tactics. With limited global demand growth, especially in mature markets, the focus has turned to emerging markets in South and Southeast Asia. OPEC members are willing to tolerate lower prices to regain market share. What's more important to them is the forward curve of oil prices. As long as the market avoids deep contango, OPEC is comfortable continuing with supply hikes.

Europe realistically cannot entirely phase out all Russian gas by 2027.

While a significant reduction is achievable, a complete phase-out is unlikely. Some landlocked countries like Slovakia and Hungary may still depend on pipeline flows, such as via Ukraine or TurkStream. Additionally, minor LNG imports might persist. Claims of zero Russian gas by 2027 are more political positioning than practical projections. Negotiations are still evolving, and a small volume of Russian gas is expected to remain in the system.

Could Europe’s political shift to the right slow down its energy transition?

It might change the tone and regulatory approach, but it won’t derail the transition. Recent right-wing gains may lead to a rollback of certain sustainability rules, but the core motivation behind the transition, national security and industrial strategy, remains strong. For instance, Germany is planning up to 20 GW of new gas-fired power to replace coal. This reflects a pragmatic strategy: replacing worse pollutants while maintaining energy security. The transition remains intact, though less ideological and more practical.