For Pakistan, the Iran war presents a crisis with no clear upside. In fact, it is difficult to imagine any scenario in which Pakistan emerges as a winner. The country sits at the intersection of several pressures, geopolitical, economic and domestic, that make this conflict uniquely dangerous. First, the domestic dimension cannot be ignored. Roughly one-fifth of Pakistan’s population is Shia, which means developments involving Iran resonate deeply within the country. Any perception that Pakistan is siding militarily with one camp over other risks reigniting sectarian tensions that the country has spent decades trying to contain. Second, Pakistan faces multiple external pressures simultaneously. Tensions with Afghanistan remain high, relations with India are fragile, and internal economic challenges continue to weigh on policymaking. Adding another regional conflict into this mix significantly complicates Pakistan’s strategic calculus.
Energy dependence adds another layer of vulnerability. The vast majority of Pakistan’s oil imports come from the Gulf, while most of its LNG supplies originate in Qatar. Any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz or escalation across the region could quickly translate into higher inflation, rising input costs for industry and growing pressure on household budgets. In this context, Pakistan’s best strategy is clear: avoid taking sides and prioritize diplomacy. Quiet engagement with regional partners and global powers will be essential to prevent further escalation. For Pakistan, stability in the Middle East is not just desirable, it is essential for domestic economic and social stability.