About 54% of Pakistan’s budget goes towards servicing debt, for example, but this isn’t unique; it’s a broader issue in South Asia and other developing countries, potentially dragging down promising growth prospects across the region.
How would you assess access to capital for energy infrastructure in the region?
While infrastructure for LNG facilities, pipelines and refineries remains important, innovation in renewables and decentralized energy solutions is reshaping the energy landscape. Pakistan has delayed procuring LNG tankers from Qatar for now. Interestingly, we’re also seeing a shift towards LPG, which offers modularity and decentralization. This trend is evident across urban and rural areas, with consumers increasingly relying on LPG cylinders. A similar shift may be happening in India. Renewables are gaining traction. Pakistan has added 10 GW of solar power this year, with plans to reach 20 GW. Wind projects and green hydrogen initiatives are also underway.
Outlook for oil prices in 2025?
I remain bearish. While geopolitical conflicts could cause market swings, fundamentals on the demand side are less optimistic. Projections show global demand growth between 840, 000 to 1.5 million b/d. China remains the key driver for demand and its economy will require more stimulus to sustain growth. Supply surplus estimates range from 950, 000 to 1.4 million b/d. My forecast is for Brent crude to average around $72, with downside potential to $65, rather than significant upside.