Lower oil prices have forced Saudi Arabia to reassess spending priorities. But this is reprioritisation, not retreat. Vision 2030 remains intact; its rollout is being phased more realistically to reflect fiscal constraints and market conditions.
Some giga projects have slowed, yet strategic energy investments are protected. Hydrogen development is well advanced, one flagship project is over 80% complete and targeting production by 2027. Solar deployment continues at pace, with 10–12 GW expected to come online in 2026, largely through state-backed entities outside the central budget.
Saudi Arabia’s clean energy push is driven by economics, not ideology. Expanding renewables and gas production reduces domestic oil use, freeing crude for export. This aligns transition spending with revenue optimisation. Gas development at Jafurah is pivotal, with Aramco projecting an 80% increase in gas output by 2030. While substitution from oil-fired to gas-fired power will take time to show in the data, the trajectory is clear. From 2027 onward, the impact should become increasingly visible, even as electricity demand grows.
Beyond traditional energy, Saudi aims to become “electricity rich” to support energy-intensive industries like AI and data centers. Competitive power pricing will be key to attracting these sectors.
On the fiscal side, deficits of around 5% of GDP in 2026 are manageable. Debt is rising from a low base, and the Kingdom retains strong buffers and borrowing capacity, allowing gradual adjustment rather than abrupt cuts.
With oil prices likely subdued into 2026 absent major disruptions, discipline and sequencing matter more than ever. Saudi Arabia’s strategy is not about doing less, but about doing what matters most, in the right order, under tougher market conditions.