As Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman visits Washington for the first time since the Abqaiq attacks of 2019, it is essential to recognize how dramatically the landscape has shifted. Saudi Arabia’s priorities have expanded beyond traditional security guarantees. Nuclear power cooperation, long a secondary file, is now central. Simultaneously, Washington is more urgently pushing for a sustainable Saudi–Israel normalization framework that could reduce the need for US security intervention in the region. Added to this is a sharper, more consequential US–China rivalry. Riyadh has strengthened its own geopolitical posture, improving ties with Iran, advancing agreements with Pakistan, and maintaining balanced channels with major powers. A grand bargain may be elusive, but incremental progress across several strategic files is likely.
Iran Is Repositioning, Not Retreating
Iran’s recent announcement that it has halted uranium enrichment should not be misread as strategic capitulation. Tehran has shown little sign of abandoning its regional ambitions. Instead, it is consolidating, relocating sensitive operations, and preparing for the next phase of its long game. Iran understands America’s aversion to prolonged conflict, a structural asymmetry that advantages Tehran’s patience. Israel, having failed to achieve its objectives earlier this year, remains poised for renewed confrontation. The region should prepare for Iran to reapply pressure once it has reset internally.