charterers, ”
Shipping risks in the Red Sea remain elevated
We've started seeing some ships traversing the area, but our data shows little change with moving averages across containers, dry bulk, and tankers still very weak. So, war risk premiums haven't changed, and we haven't heard about ship owners rushing to return to the Red Sea. It's more likely to be a story for the second half of the year; for now, ships are still bypassing the Suez Canal and Red Sea in favor of the Cape of Good Hope.
Outlook for tanker rates in Q2 given possibly more stringent sanctions?
OFAC sanctions intensified recently, with about 500 ships, predominantly oil tankers, added to the sanctions list, and primarily targeting Russian and Iranian cargoes. Despite this, Iran oil continues to flow, facilitated by ship-to-ship transfers off the coasts of China and Malaysia for example. The shipping industry's opacity allows vessels to reflag and obtain new insurance and charterers, maintaining the flow of sanctioned commodities. The reality is that regulating the Dark Fleet is challenging. Ownership and management can change rapidly.
What’s your view on possible US port fees on Chinese vessels?
What’s interesting is that this marks the first time the US has explicitly targeted Chinese maritime dominance. Over the past 15-20 years, China has built one of the world's largest merchant fleets - whether it's tankers, containers, or gas carriers; they’ve also invested heavily in shipyards. Building a ship in the US today would cost five times more and take three or four times as long as it would elsewhere. Imposing million-dollar port fees on Chinese-built ships would have a major negative impact on global supply chains and trade, including US trade. In our view, it's unlikely that this proposal will be implemented.