Israel’s influence will likely continue to grow, with potential implications for Syria, Lebanon, and even a possible strike on Iran. Such developments could wreak havoc on energy markets, especially at strategic chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20 million barrels of oil pass daily. Any disruptions here would have severe consequences. The roles of major powers like China and Russia are also pivotal. While Iranian and Russian presence has waned slightly due to Russia’s focus on Ukraine and shifting dynamics in Syria and a weakening of Iran’s proxies, both nations remain influential. Meanwhile, China is poised to play an even greater role, especially after brokering peace between Saudi Arabia and Iran and investing heavily in regional infrastructure. In addition to all of these geopolitical dynamics, Energy Transition and nuclear energy advancements in the Middle East will also shape the future of oil and gas flows.
How do you see Turkey-Russia relations evolving?
The Syrian conflict has reshaped their roles, but Moscow and Ankara are undeniably important partners, due to their mutual interests in security, tourism, defense, nuclear energy, and natural gas. Russia supplies the bulk of Turkey’s gas and is constructing Turkey’s first nuclear power plant. They do diverge significantly on many geopolitical issues, from the Caucasus to Syria and Iran, but their energy ties will remain robust. With the transit route through Ukraine closed, Turkey may facilitate additional Russian gas exports via the TurkStream 2 pipeline, as well as gas from Azerbaijan and elsewhere. Turkey and Russia will maintain a pragmatic relationship, balancing areas of conflict and cooperation.
How soon could we see the future of Syria take shape?
The real problem will be with Israel, the US and some of the Arab countries in determining which direction the new regime will move. It can’t wait four years as has been possibly proposed, for a new constitution and election to take place. How the region’s politicalmilitary structure will evolve remains in question so there are huge challenges ahead. Syria’s reconstruction also poses an issue, with questions on who will fund the $400 billion required.
And Turkish-Israel relations?
Although Turkey and Israel historically don’t see eye to eye, geopolitical pragmatism might encourage dialogue between these two regional powers, under Trump’s influence.