The emerging winners in the region appear to be Israel and Turkey, while the US gains leverage in potential negotiations with Iran. Reconstruction efforts will drive the need for energy, with opportunities for expanded hydrocarbon activities in Lebanon, Egypt, and even Cyprus. Syria, despite its challenges, may also attract investment in offshore oil and gas development. Furthermore, reconstruction in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria could incorporate green energy initiatives, fueling investment in renewable energy.
Do you foresee investment coming from Gulf countries?
Investment in regions like the Eastern Mediterranean or North Africa has been contingent on political settlements and guarantees for Gulf investors. Gulf nations have the financial capacity for significant investments, along with the US and EU. However, they’ve been prioritizing their domestic diversification efforts to prepare for the Energy Transition and the eventual decline in oil and gas revenues. Historically, Gulf countries have hesitated to invest in nations like Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq if political conditions appeared unstable or unfavorable - particularly if Iranian influence loomed large. Even after the Saudi-Iran deal under Chinese mediation, Gulf nations remain cautious about regions without clear political alignment in their favor. However, the shifts since October 7th, including Israel’s gains, Iran’s losses, and the fall of the Assad regime, could reshape perceptions. The emerging new order may lead to the gradual removal of sanctions and incentivize investments.