The real progress on the Strait of Hormuz began in Oman, where Omani and Iranian officials started addressing unresolved issues surrounding the future management of the waterway. Clarifying shipping routes is an immediate priority, but these talks are only the beginning. Both countries now have a limited window to develop a new framework, and whatever emerges, the Strait is unlikely to operate as it did before. A model similar to the Strait of Malacca, jointly managed by neighboring states, could offer a useful template.
No Tolls, Only Optional Services
Oman's position remains clear: there will be no tolls for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Instead, discussions center on providing optional maritime services through joint Omani-Iranian arrangements. Ships requiring navigation assistance, safety support or emergency services could request them when needed. The objective is to strengthen maritime management, not impose mandatory charges on international shipping.
Uncertainty is Driving the Market
Oil prices reflect uncertainty more than fundamentals. Questions remain over the durability of the ceasefire, negotiations on Hormuz, the return of disrupted production and upcoming OPEC+ decisions. Market structure is also beginning to shift, encouraging refiners to draw down inventories and consider fresh purchases while prices remain relatively attractive. Until these uncertainties are resolved, price direction will remain difficult to predict.
Why OPEC+ Still Matters
Speculation about higher production quotas should be viewed as part of negotiations over future baselines rather than a sign of OPEC+'s decline. The alliance remains essential to balancing global markets, coordinating producers and providing stability during periods of geopolitical and market disruption.