The Trump administration has been the proverbial nail in the coffin for any immediate progress on normalization of relationships in the Mideast region.

Whether it’s the reimposition of maximum pressure on Iran through last week’s executive order or the ongoing ceasefires, there’s an underlying sense that the move to phase two of the ceasefire process may not be as successful as hoped. With a couple of weeks of negotiations still ahead before phase two is meant to be implemented, we could see some deviation from the originally agreed framework. What additional steps will Trump take in the next month that forces regional actors to recalibrate, is still in question.

How does Saudi Arabia position itself going forward?

Saudi Arabia’s statement over the weekend in response to Trump and Netanyahu’s comments on Gaza was one of the most forceful yet. Other Gulf states, particularly those in the Abraham Accords, will have to navigate their relationships more carefully. In the short term, preserving the relationship with Tehran is vital for Riyadh. There’s even an argument to be made that, in the coming months, Saudi Arabia could become a key interlocutor in managing U.S.-Iran relations, very discreetly, through back channels, and in a way that also serves its own interests. This is a role Riyadh has never played before, but one that could prove strategically valuable. From our perspective, for any normalization to happen, it’s a matter of timing and perception. The key players today – whether Trump or Netanyahu, are not people the Saudis can work with to finalize such a deal. The region has seen significant shifts over the last 18 months. A year ago, we were discussing the potential for normalization under specific conditions. Those conditions have changed, but while the obstacles are currently greater, they won’t remain static forever.

What’s next for OPEC+ Volumes?

OPEC will likely allow for a modest production increase in April, to demonstrate that they are following through on their commitments. The market remains uncertain, with mixed signals coming from China, India, and other key players. OPEC’s main priority will be maintaining stability and managing the inevitable messaging chaos coming from the White House.