We’re drifting toward a world of higher risk, higher prices, and poorer information, with very little strategic gain. Take Russia and Venezuela. The White House talks up “maximum pressure, ” but it is not clear it wants Russian barrels offline. The blocked Gunvor–Lukoil deal is emblematic: firms wade in assuming a straightforward transaction, then hit the thicket of overlapping sanctions, carve-outs, and political red lines. What we get instead is a country-by-country patchwork of workarounds, especially in Europe and for refined products. Revenues are squeezed at the margin, but global flows are rerouted rather than removed. In Venezuela, gunboat diplomacy grabs headlines, yet there is no coherent plan for what comes after regime change, which is precisely why we are unlikely to see it.
Tariffs as expensive political theatre
Tariffs are where Trump is truly all-in. Even after recent tweaks, combined measures on Chinese goods still sit at punishing levels. He now markets tariffs as a way to “fund” new domestic dividends, an extraordinarily inefficient form of redistribution that keeps inflationary pressure alive while doing little to fix America’s underlying imbalances. China, meanwhile, retains leverage through rare-earth minerals and its central role in multiple supply chains.
US government shutdown deepens a dangerous data vacuum
With key agencies like the EIA constrained, policymakers and businesses are “flying blind” just as more oil flows through opaque channels. Big players will build private datasets; everyone else will guess. Trump’s political high-water mark may be fading, but the institutional erosion and economic vulnerabilities he has amplified are not. We should expect more volatility, and demand a more honest debate about the real costs of his tactics.