The reality is that the complications are mounting. The Iranian Foreign Ministry is already flagging issues with nuclear enrichment, inspections, and transparency. Also, Iranian oil exports are still holding strong at around 1.6 million b/d, despite supply chain issues like rising floating storage and incremental sanctions on Chinese teapots. Also, politically, Iran is driven by one man’s decision at the top - there’s no urgency on their side to rush into a deal.
Outlook for refined products ahead of summer?
Fuel oil cracks have been notably resilient and strong, which aligns with seasonal expectations. That’s especially relevant considering Saudi Arabia is really the only OPEC+ member that can add meaningful physical barrels beyond nominal pledges. If fuel oil cracks remain high, we could even see more crude burning this summer, absorbing some of those incremental barrels. In Q1, we saw strong heating and bunker fuel demand. There was also a degree of front-loading, as buyers anticipated tariffs, which boosted early demand. Refining margins are still relatively healthy. When you look at product pricing, gasoline isn't expected to take a big hit from tariffs. The pressure is more on gasoil, and we’re already seeing that reflected in freight rates and container traffic. As for the rest of the year, we’ll have to see if the Trump administration starts walking back some of its more aggressive trade proposals. Interestingly, a less-discussed but important area is LPG flows. Despite a decline in U.S. exports due to China’s steep reciprocal tariffs - over 100% in some cases - Chinese buyers are showing hesitancy. They're shifting away from U.S. suppliers, which affects U.S. shale margins because NGL production economics are linked. So forward pricing in the products market could influence crude fundamentals more directly than before.