We see oil demand quite strong in the third and fourth quarters.

We have it growing at 1.6mn b/d in Q3, and 2mn b/d in Q4, year-on year. We’ve projected for some time now that there would be strong draws in Q3, and it seems like we’re moving in that direction. From our point of view, the crude flat price is looking to move up, possibly even pushing over $90 in the next couple of months. It will be more challenging in 2025 when balances look longer, and OPEC will then have to make calls. In the near term though, we’re constructive for price.

Do you see OPEC adjusting their demand forecasts?

They still look way too high, and certainly if you look at the first part of the year. Our own number is more in between the IEA and OPEC, with the IEA maybe a bit too bearish. Realistically, it’s the second half of this year where we see demand strength, some of it seasonal, but in Q4, things could get interesting because the question is how forward-looking the market will be. Will it price in some of that seasonal demand weakness that we expect to see in the first part of 2025?

Outlook for Iranian crude exports ahead of and after the US election?

Iranian oil has been selling at a discount that Iran may or may not like, but it’s getting most of the crude and products it wants into the market. We don’t see that changing under Biden, as they want the oil to get out. Under Trump, it is more complicated and uncertain. But I probably wouldn’t focus on that until early 2025 and realistically, Trump wouldn’t restrict Iranian oil unless he had some kind of cooperation from others in the Middle East to replace those lost barrels.