Oil demand across the EU peaked in 2022 and has been declining since, alongside weaker industrial and refinery output. The economic slowdown is a broad, structural issue. For example, Germany has seen about a 1.5% decline in oil demand since 2024. Given its size, that’s significant. However, product demand may hold steady, which brings geopolitical implications, particularly Europe’s growing dependence on India, which is rapidly expanding refining capacity - filling the gap left by Europe’s refineries - and exporting diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel into Europe. Europe’s dependence on product imports is rising, while Russian flows are declining more slowly than policymakers expected.

How does Europe’s economic outlook align with its massive commitment to import U.S. LNG?

In my view, and that of many following the gas market, these commitments are largely political. They don’t match Europe’s actual gas demand. Essentially, Europe is pledging LNG imports to reinforce transatlantic ties, but economically it’s difficult to see how the EU can absorb such volumes. This raises questions about the compatibility between political decisions and market realities.

How complicated is decision making for OPEC+ on whether to add more oil?

It’s difficult to give a simple forecast because economic and geopolitical links are deeply intertwined. Political decisions, whether on Ukraine, the Middle East, or trade tensions, often disrupt economic developments. Globally, oil demand will still rise, mainly in non-OECD economies where consumption has grown 30% over the past decade, an impressive figure. By contrast, the U.S. and Europe face slower growth. The global economic center of gravity is shifting, and that’s the lens through which we must analyze events.

What do you make of hints from Europe about peacekeeping deployments in Ukraine?

I wouldn’t comment on specifics until we see decisions from major players like France or the UK. There are real concerns about the conflict widening beyond Ukraine, which prompts tougher rhetoric from some policymakers. But so far, it looks more like positioning.