The US stance on Iran is still unclear and Iran anyway has become adept at circumventing oil sanctions with help from China and Russia. The real concern is potential Israeli action against Iran’s nuclear sites, which would likely involve US support to succeed. Meanwhile, the ceasefire in Gaza is holding, but the situation remains tense, and talks seem to be stalling. Trump has been pressuring Saudi Arabia for normalization with Israel, but Saudi responses on a Palestinian state have been swift and unequivocal. Trump’s administration also seems preoccupied with Ukraine and the Indo-Pacific, limiting their focus on the Middle East.
Is Saudi still looking to the US to guarantee its regional security?
The US has been shifting its approach to Saudi Arabia and other countries, towards a transactional economic relationship and minimizing security commitments outside its mainland. This trend has become more apparent under Trump. Saudi Arabia is still seeking security guarantees and possibly nuclear capabilities, but that will again depend on US concessions in the Israel-Palestine situation. We're likely to see a status quo in US-Saudi relations, with a slight shift towards economic aspects but no major changes in security commitments.
Do we have a lower threat level today to transit in the Bab al-Mandab area?
The Houthis remain active; there has been no formal cessation of their attacks on shipping in Bab al-Mandab, and security costs in the area are still significant. While there may be a temporary decrease in daily attacks, the situation is fragile. Iran's influence via proxies hasn’t waned, and even with the political changes in Syria, Iran continues to adapt, reportedly coordinating with Turkey to transport weapons.
Can the US succeed in Iran relinquishing its nuclear program?
The US has struggled to prevent this, especially since withdrawing from the nuclear deal under Trump 1.0, which damaged US credibility. The result is a policy that lacks coherence and clarity, making it less effective. US and Israeli threats of force might inadvertently push Iran closer to nuclear armament.