Higher than historical norms, though probably not as extreme as Trump’s rhetoric suggests. But the deeper question is whether this volatility is a temporary feature of Trump-era politics or a sign of a new, more permanent phase in U.S. policymaking. We’ve seen the traditional 100-day push, but this administration has gone well beyond the standard Washington playbook. We’re witnessing a stress test of institutional norms - across trade, defense, and executive authority. Alongside the usual budget cycle, major constitutional questions are emerging.
Are markets and courts acting as ultimate restraints?
We’re beginning to see the political cycle reassert itself, with midterms approaching in 18 months. That’s on lawmakers’ minds, especially given tight majorities. But the usual political rhythms may not be enough. Which courts ultimately have authority? Will decisions rest with the Supreme Court or lower courts too? These structural uncertainties are now baked into the policymaking environment, affecting both domestic and global expectations.
Has Trump’s tariff disruption already been priced into energy markets?
The industry, especially shale, faces real headwinds. Signs suggest shale growth may be plateauing. Overall, the industry is more frustrated than expected. They haven’t turned on him, but they are disappointed.
What about the Inflation Reduction Act?
Much of the IRA’s impact hinges on federal subsidies, and the administration has moved aggressively to undercut them. While not a complete dismantling, it’s a big setback for the Energy Transition. Biden managed to lock in some provisions before leaving office, but not as many as hoped. The Senate will have its say, and some provisions benefiting red states or swing districts might survive. But in the House, those protections didn’t hold. I expect a similar pattern in the Senate, particularly since Republicans need to fund their budget, and that often means cutting programs like these.