The budget deficit was around 5% in our previous outlook, but we’re now looking at closer to 6%. Saudi can absorb it; they’ve made it clear they expect to run deficits for several years. They moved quickly in January 2024 with aggressive issuance - we’ve seen the same this year. While there's been talk of recalibrating some of the Vision 2030 projects, they’re still committed to many, particularly those tied to major international events. That said, the longer this weaker oil price environment lasts, the more likely we’ll see headlines around deeper recalibrations on some of the larger projects.

Outlook for Gulf economies given global trade uncertainty?

We haven’t made any significant revisions to our growth forecasts. When looking at non-oil performance, particularly from the UAE and Saudi Arabia, it’s holding up relatively well. The UAE slowed a bit in the last PMI survey, from 55 to 54, but Q1 was still solid overall. Saudi Arabia’s January PMI was the highest in 14 years and remained around 58 for the following two months. Looking at the rest of the year, we remain generally bullish. There are major projects underway in both countries. In Saudi Arabia, everyone knows about the giga-projects. In the UAE, you've got the airport expansion, new metro, and the railway line, all of which should support growth. However, we’re keeping an eye on trade and logistics. A global trade slowdown could reduce throughput at Jebel Ali or major airports. Tourism could also take a hit if another cost-of-living crisis affects household spending. That said, Dubai’s tourism figures have held up well so far this year. Also, a weaker dollar against the euro and pound could even make the region more attractive. In terms of tariffs, there’s now a 10% tariff applied across the board, but the direct trade impact with the U.S. is limited. For the UAE, the most significant one is aluminum which has a 25% tariff, but that’s just 0.4% of total UAE exports to the US. For Saudi Arabia, exports are closer to 5%, but most of that is oil, which isn’t tariffed.