What the Fed does will be more important for the oil price than what OPEC+ does.

We’re going into the third quarter, so fundamentally demand should be up by about one million barrels. What we saw during the OPEC meeting was a little too bearish, but I still believe we’ll see $90 by the end of the year. The Fed decision is crucial. If we get a second cut, which is still a big “if, ” it will be very positive.

Is inflation a big concern for oil demand?

When you have a target of 2%, 3.3% is not too bad. Inflation is all about expectations. Overall, the macro situation is a little more positive, which should help crude oil, alongside improving fundamentals. There isn’t anything particularly bullish out there, but I think the market should pick up. For example, the situation on the ground shows that Nigerian barrels have finally cleared up in June. Angolan barrels have also cleared up mainly for July, and there are more bids in the window for Brent.

What are your thoughts on OPEC+ planning to bring back barrels in Q4?

If I were Saudi Arabia and the UAE, I would just say, we have the capacity to do this and announce that enough is enough. By the end of the decade, Norway is increasing their production by at least half a million barrels, and that’s a high-cost producing area. Why should OPEC support prices for these producers? At some stage, this strategy will have to be rethought, but for the next few months, demand will save OPEC. We will likely see a Goldilocks oil price between $80 and $90, driven by solid demand during the summer season, but OPEC will have to face this issue next year, come Q2. With weaker demand then, we could see oil prices around $70 again, which is problematic for countries like Saudi Arabia that need closer to $100 for their budget.