Your price outlook for Brent?

We see downside potential from here. Fundamentals are weakening, quarter-on-quarter demand is declining due to seasonal factors, refinery maintenance, and weaker cracks and margins. Meanwhile, supply is rising by over 2mbpd; unless geopolitical risk premiums increase, Brent could fall by $2–$3 between Q4 and Q1 next year.

Is declining OPEC+ spare capacity becoming a bullish market factor?

Spare capacity is quietly shrinking, especially outside Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Much of the system’s buffer was built during COVID and has been idle since, making restarts harder. As OPEC+ unwinds cuts, the buffer tightens, creating a mildly bullish undertone. But overall, we expect 2025–26 to show weaker balances, higher stocks, softer demand, and thus some downward price pressure.

How do Chinese and Indian energy behaviors affect global balances?

China’s strategic stockpiling has been a key floor for Brent around $60, but we expect that to slow next year. India, meanwhile, will keep sourcing energy wherever it’s cheapest, Russia, Iran, or elsewhere. Secondary sanctions could complicate flows, but India’s price-driven approach won’t change much. Iranian barrels continue to flow indirectly into China, keeping landed costs low.

Market direction and balance into 2026?

The market is gradually rebalancing with mild oversupply. Chinese demand moderation, slower stockpiling, and potential non-OPEC growth (like U.S. shale) could all add downward weight. That said, reduced spare capacity provides a counterbalancing risk. So, modest downside bias, but with occasional bullish jolts from geopolitics.